Sunday, 16 February 2014

London Victoria January 2014

 I've not been blogging because I have been working on a new contract..







Tom Clancy's South China Sea and Cyberwar predictions summarised

It would be no exaggeration to say Tom Clancy, who died last year, was the Ian Fleming of the 1980s. He also had a famous knack for prediction, making his recent novel on South China Sea confrontations and Cyberwar something of a must read at the moment. It coincides with the release of another attempt to re-boot his main character, Jack Ryan, as a movie franchise.



This is the first of three blogposts on Tom Clancy. This first post summarises the events of Clancy's novel Threat Vector, which covers a confrontation between the US and Allies and China in the South China Sea. Currently a very topical subject. The second post will cover my own personal history with Clancy's books, how I've mostly enjoyed them despite seeing his politics follow the path of right wing US opinion, evolving from Reagan Republican to far right neo-con lunacy. The third post will be a review of JACK RYAN, the latest movie adaptation of a Clancy book - or at least that is what it appears to be.

"Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said Japan and China should avoid repeating the past mistakes of Britain and Germany, which fought in World War One despite strong economic ties, according to his main government spokesman in Tokyo."

We should all be worried about current events in the South China Sea. This territorial dispute between China, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea seems to be driven by the Chinese military and a far right government in Japan which has the full backing of the United States. We have to hope diplomatic efforts in 2014 are more effective than 1914.
For Chinese and Japanese readers, in 1914 my country had completed a century as undisputed world super power, just four years and 1 million dead later it was a bankrupt client state of the United States.

One sense that this is 1914 all over again comes from the general acceptance that some confrontation will be inevitable. This is a satirical Onion headline from 2001 just after the China-US air collision of 2001.

First Chapter In History Of Sino-American War Of 2011 Already Written

based on recent events, this could be only a few years out. At the same time the reports and evidence of Chinese cyber attacks have increased, demonstrating their capability to disrupt and penetrate Western information networks almost at will.

Aside from being excellent with technical detail Tom Clancy had a talent for prediction, he famously depicted a terrorist crash a 747 onto the Whitehouse in his book Debt of Honour in 1994, predating the 9/11 attacks by six years.

According to Colin Powell
"Tom’s books were incredibly accurate. He didn’t invent impossible schemes. He invented things that could happen. Some things that have actually happened over years bore some resemblance to scenarios that he put  together. Tom could sense things and see things in a way that others couldn’t. Even though he wasn’t writing nonfiction, some of the things he wrote became reality."

Here are some more Clancy predictions.

Tom Clancy's Threat Vector, co-written with Mark Greaney, was published in 2012 and covers the events in the South China Sea we seem to be able to see developing right now. Much as I enjoy the pace and detail of Clancy's work, the politics and most of the characterisation I find pretty nauseating (I will go into this in detail in the next blogpost). This isn't so much a review of Threat Vector as a summary of Clancy's view of how he thinks the South China Sea situation could develop, written for those who would laugh out loud and give up at the first exposure to some of the John Wayne dialogue.

The events of Threat Vector :

  • Chinese land troops on disputed islands in the South China Sea
  • US backs its allies and moves carrier groups into the area
  • As a warning Chinese hack US military satellite uplinks and have start hijacking all the US military drones. A hijacked drone destroy a US base in Afghanistan - to cause confusion the Chinese make sure all this is traceable to Iran. This is intended to distract the Americans from South China Sea events and is conducted not by the Chinese military directly but by a group of military trained hackers hidden by Triads. In Hong Kong (?)
  • US special forces (along with Clancy characters acting as President Ryan's private spy agency, The Campus) try a rather desperate grab for Chinese hacker assets in Hong Kong and it is nearly a fiasco.
  • Chinese declare an exclusion zone over South China Sea and there is a dogfight over the straights between PRC and Nationalist Chinese and US pilots.
  • Effects of Chinese action in SCS go beyond US involvement as the Indians are formally warned to keep their ships out of trading with Vietnam. Indians ignore this and Chinese attack the Indian aircraft carrier with anti-ship missiles.
  • Americans take their Carrier groups out of range of mainland Chinese missiles (but not their ballistic Carrier Killer, which is mentioned but never used)
  • US navy threatens to blockade oil through straights of Mallaca which instigates full on Chinese cyber war, severely comprising worldwide communications, transport and the safety of assets such as nuclear power stations.
  • With US and China on the verge of full scale war US president orders American pilots secretly fly alongside Nationalist China forces in Taiwan.
  • Having been relocated from Hong Kong, the Chinese cyber warriors are now all (?) headquartered in the Chinese Telecom building of a city near the coast (?). This is destroyed in an air raid by Taiwanese planes flown by American pilots.
  • In the background a group of semi-independent Chinese special forces which will be disavowed by the Chinese are defeated by The Campus, a similarly independent group of (corporate) special forces, who stage the death of a militant Chinese general by blaming it on the Chinese death squad.

We all live happily ever after.

Personal Observations 
With more knowing immorality this would be a great book. (Covered in next blog).

Few write an action scene as well as Clancy and the air raid is as close as Clancy ever go to writing the end of Star Wars.

The future of warfare is would seem to be low level covert special forces raids to attack cyber warfare centres. Cyberwar makes conventional (kinetic) military action against semi-private (and probably dispersed) very difficult. Direct military action would probably be limited to special forces, and all of this probably very mobile and probably most of it very non-official. Perhaps the most believable events in Threat Vector are semi-private (perhaps corporate) organisations doing the work of secret services which today are not not so secret.  Conflict between them is low level and could almost be mistaken for conflicts between crime gangs.

Clancy's non-official secret service is The Campus, which is basically Team America World Police - but even more offensive and ridiculous, as The Campus and literally paid directly by the finance industry (without inconvenience of it travelling through the political process, ironically one of the themes of his best early book, Clear and Present Danger).

I'm no more convinced that a team of elite Chinese assassins could operate in the US against IT centers than I am that a similar team of Americans (including the Presidents son!) can operate in mainland China. By the time you reach this in Threat Vector your sense of disbelief may be yearning to watch Thor 2 again.

When Jack Ryan Jnr, President Ryan's son (in a face mask) rescues a downed pilot from a Chinese mob in Rambo style after the bombing of the Chinese telecoms building - in China - he thanks the American pilot with words to the effect of
Those 8 ton of bombs you just used to flatten the China Telecom building may have just stopped a war!
which gave me my biggest laugh of January 2013. If the Chinese find some way to attack the Americans with irony they may be in trouble.

The destruction of this building somehow magically stops all the serious cyber attacks in a way that seems to work entirely without reference to how trojans actually operate. This is as much a cheat as it is fanciful, reminding me of those lame vampire movies where everyone returns to normal when the lead vampire is staked.

The effects of cyber warfare are seen entirely from the office of the President and amount to problems with infrastructure and connectivity. This is all disappointingly thin stuff from Clancy and probably obsolete 15 years ago. The recent worry that all IT hardware sourced from China contains built in back door access is ignored, perhaps because it leads to awkward questions about the relative importance Clancy's Republican "job creator" friends give to American national security compared to the god of the global market place.

This is the first the first time in a Clancy book we see limits to US Imperial power and if you've been reading him a while it is quite poignant, even if Clancy himself completely misses the chance to draw attention to this. The Chinese cannot be overwhelmed by superior technology and Clancy obviously has a healthy respect at least for their technical achievements.

The villian in Threat Vector,  Dr. Tong Kwok Kwan, the head of China's cyberespionage and cyberwarfare militia, is a mixture of Dr No and Fu Manchu, revealing in every way Clancy's problem with the Chinese
"What should I do when I get to this address?"
"KILL EVERY LIVING THING"
I should note I recently gave up on Flemings DR NO after a reading a pretty shocking description of the uses of mixed race Chinese and Caribbeans so don't think I'm finding problem with Clancy alone. (Ian Fleming born : 1908, Tom Clancy born :1947)

The last real person I heard using the phrase 'Chi-coms' was Douglas MacArthur.

The Indian navy is directly attacked by the Chinese and - at odds with everything I know about Indians and Pakistanis - they take this lying down and then recede into the background to let the Americans take over the response. Interestingly the Indian's are still using the ex-Royal Navy Hermes (as Viraat) which, as I speculated in my carrier post, has outlived an entire class of Royal Navy replacement carriers which cost the British taxpayer in the region of £5-6 billion (Invincible Class)

In the ages it took to post this I was able to consider my own countries role in this. In that previous carriers post I speculated that the enormous Royal Navy super carriers being built now would have little real world use within flight range of Europe and would be dangerously exposed elsewhere without American cover. Maybe their long term use is not intended for home waters around the UK. I hope not.

Lastly I should say and Mark Greaney does a seamless job with (presumably) ghost writing Clancy's work and this could easily pass as a solo Clancy book in my eyes. If anything it seems toned down from the later silly excesses of Executive Orders and the Bear and the Dragon. I listened to Threat Vector as an unabridged audio book (see Ipods for Sleep) voiced by much maligned actor Lou Diamond Philips, who does a magnificent job keeping the cheese level down to a fresh Cheshire rather than decade old Camembert.
If only we could have Brian Blessed voice Clancy's Executive Orders we could have a comedy classic on our hands.

Thursday, 6 February 2014

Storm wrecked Exmoor reflekts on Hiatian doom - Arcade Fire's Reflektor

Pics are from New Year in stormy Exmoor.


A literally sky splitting 6am thunderstorm lit the inside of my house briefly like a summers day with its lightening. Literally sky splitting as Sky News coveraing the storms in nearby Ilfracombe felt the full force of it
Neighbours dog ran out of the house and they found him hiding under a caravan. Apparently the dog associates the backup power generators with thunder and if he can't get out of the house he attacks all the wiring.
Exciting weather for British humans, scary for their dogs - it is useful to be reminded how easy it has been for us compared  to others so far in terms of extreme weather events.


My big birthday present to self turned out to be just one CD (well two, its a double). But it was enough.
I patiently waited to get to Solo Records in Barnstaple to get the new Arcade Fire album, Reflektor.

I was intrigued by Funeral but didn't hugely like it. Tried avoiding Neon Bible but it eventually sucked me in.

Took me pretty much the length of my big road trip to get into their last album, The Suburbs, but it is almost the definitive slow burner. By the time I returned to the UK >>> could almost bring me to tears. A beautiful haunting nostalgic record looking back to today from some grim future it I suddenly realise it has something in common with ELOs Time, but is a bit better. Like comparing GATTACA with Moon Zero Two.

Reflektor is obviously a complelley different animal, a canadian-voodoo dance album. A double album, first half to me sounds like Talking Heads infused with the Yeah Yeah Yeahs, second is much more Bowie. Canadian voodoo? Indie dance? This album is full of bizzare juxtopositions that go together like jam and peanut butter. Track You Already Know shocks with a very British sounding sample of Jonathan Ross, and is followed by, my favourite track, a sweet almost football chant to French nationalist symbol (and Saint) Joan of Arc.

Partially written in Hiati during the relief efforts for the 2010 earthquake and multiple hurricanes (Issac and Sandy),  Reflektor is a sound created from a world upside down and in complete flux, where inspirations are lying around waiting to be picked up randomly from the wreckage of a lost world.


Sunday, 2 February 2014

Friday, 6 December 2013

"HANG NELSON MANDELA" - British Conservatives in the 1980s


I was actually a Liberal centrist SDP supporter until I went to college and met some of the Conservatives


"A Blackpool conference where members of the Federation of Conservative Students, which in those days had Mark McGregor and current Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow among their leaders, proposed motions calling for Nelson Mandela to be executed as a terrorist. They wore suits with collars and ties and lapel badges screaming "Hang Nelson Mandela." Truly barking boys on the wrong side of history.

They were not entirely alone. Margaret Thatcher denounced the ANC as a “typical terrorist organization,” and one of her strongest supporters, Teddy Taylor, said Nelson Mandela  “should be shot.”


from


It is hugely ironic that Mandela, a consummate politician that brought his riven country together in a spirit of positive life affirming unity, should pass on the same year as Margaret Thatcher, the contemporary that did so much to ruin his reputation at the time.

Saturday, 23 November 2013

AN ADVENTURE IN SPACE AND TIME review

AN ADVENTURE IN SPACE AND TIME kind of reminded me of Tim Burton's ED Wood without Johnny Depp's heroic sense of non-achievement and with Dr Who #1 Bill Hartnell in the Lugosi role.

It is literally an adventure in space and time, shown as one final adventure for a forgotten and rapidly aging actor who is already a relic from another era. It is an emotional ride but should not to be missed by anyone, let alone Who fans. Actor's are all convincingly versions of the originals and it is supremely written by Mark Gatiss, who amongst many other notable achievements is co-creator of BBCs SHERLOCK.



One of the supreme ironies of this kind of drama is that the world of the early 1960s now looks far more alien than the alien environments being portrayed. It does struggle to get across the warmth of Hartnell beyond the grumpy stills. I'm Pertwee era but when I finally caught up with Unearthly Child I thought it one of the best.

Thursday, 21 November 2013

Marvel One-Shot: Don't Wait Up Tony

 INT.
STARK TOWER, NEW YORK after the events of THOR THE DARK WORLD
Around a large table in a sumptuous high tech multi million dollar environment Stark Enterprises CEO PEPPER POTTS and DR. JANE FOSTER. enjoy a glass of wine over what looks like a very expensive meal.
Nearby DARCY LEWIS pours herself another large glass of red wine from a carafe.



PEPPER POTTS
But it's Asgard Jane.. surely...

JANE FOSTER
Oh sure, it is amazing, on so many levels. But try and get a Burrito for breakfast .. I guess if I talked to Volstagg..

DARCY LEWIS
<interrups, slurring>
You can't get Burritos for breakfast in London either.




Pepper and Foster ignore her and continue to talk about Asgard. Darcy gets up from the table with her wine glass and approaches a dancing head up display filled with lights and graphics. This is run by JARVIS.

DARCY LEWIS
<waving her hand at the graphics> So err.. Jarvis.. are you an actual artificial intelligence?

JARVIS
I believe Mr Stark would refer to me as a Cognitive Simulant

DARCY LEWIS
<struggling to be interested>
What's the difference exactly?

JARVIS
Miss Lewis according to my records you took a political science major?

DARCY LEWIS
Science. Yeah. Political Science.

JARVIS
<wearily> Then yes - I'm an artificial intelligence.


Darcy has lost interest. She plays with the music controls on the headup display. Jarvis tries to protest.
As Duran Duran comes on Darcy kicks of her shoes, climbs onto the table and starts to dance.
The song is "Is There Something I should Know?"

Jane ties to apologise to Pepper but Pepper is smiling

 JANE FOSTER:
Sorry its jetlag

DARCY LEWIS
<dancing>
no it isn't

 PEPPER POTTS
<amused>
I like this song

 JANE FOSTER
<considers her wine and the remains of the meal>
We're not used to high living

DARCY LEWIS
She doesn't pay me

 JANE FOSTER
No I don't pay her
<some inebriated guilt leaks out>
You know Darcy we should talk about that

Darcy shrugs



 JANE FOSTER:
<returns to Pepper>
So are you going to give me the S.H.I.E.L.D. sales pitch?

 PEPPER POTTS
I don't do sales. We have a Division for that. Its fair to say though that we've seen the best of them and you've seen the worst.

 JANE FOSTER
You make  S.H.I.E.L.D.  sound like the I.R.S.

 PEPPER POTTS
I wouldn't have taken you for one of the anti-government types

 JANE FOSTER:
Is  S.H.I.E.L.D. government though? Who are they?

 DARCY LEWIS
<still dancing>
 I didn't vote for them


TONY STARK enters. He is surprised.


 PEPPER POTTS
Well rather than wait for us all to bump into each other in some extreme situation that you or S.H.I.E.L.D , Steve, or Bruce or...
<shrugs>

 DARCY LEWIS
Jane's boyfriend

 PEPPER POTTS
.. kicks off I thought we'd bring everyone together here for a civilised

STARK :
Girls night out?

 PEPPER POTTS
Well, night in - for me.

JANE FOSTER
<looks around Stark Tower interior> : For us, this is definitely a night out

STARK
Is there a reason Jane's boyfriend isn't here?

 PEPPER POTTS
Yes. I didn't invite him.

STARK :
You socially snubbed an Asgardian? You should be running S.H.I.E.L.D.

 PEPPER POTTS
I know 

<Stark tastes wine from carafe>

STARK
Is that the Domaine le Roy '64?

 PEPPER POTTS
<mischievous smile>
How would you know if it was?

STARK
<Tony runs the wine over his palate - it's just not interesting enough a subject for him>. Oh - OK

<raises a toast to Foster and Lewis>
Dr Foster, I've admired you work

JANE FOSTER
I know - You tried to make it a compulsory purchase through S.H.I.E.L.D. after New Mexico.

STARK
I thought you needed supporting

JANE FOSTER
I need to be left alone

STARK :
Be nice to talk some time.. about .. I could ask your opinion of ..String Theory?

 JANE FOSTER
<looking surprised/amused> String theory?.. sure.. I could ask your opinion of.. biplanes?


 PEPPER POTTS
<Pepper beams>
It's nice to have guests isn't it?

STARK :
You two have obviously really hit it off

JANE FOSTER
<seriously>
It is an honour to meet Tony Stark

STARK
<ignores her, raises his glass and smiles at Darcy>
Princess

<Darcy gives a snarky smile in return and adjusts her glasses>

STARK
Careful on the table, it can double as an automated medical facility. So, three of you - hardly a party?

DARCY :
We've left the other two, we think they have some issues to work out

<Camera pans to balcony, behind soundproof glass NATASHA ROMANOV and BETTY ROSS, have not touched their drinks and are in heated discussion. Betty is wiping away tears.>

<Stark and Foster have in an instant science competitive edge>

STARK
It's a shame you weren't around to see more of the action in New York

JANE FOSTER
I've seen plenty of similar since

STARK
Word is you are working with Eric Solveig again

JANE FOSTER
He is a genius in the field. A valuable member of my team

STARK
He's also a diagnosed schizophrenic dabbling in a new science we barely know

JANE FOSTER
I would guess he's already forgotten more on the subject of wormhole tech than you'll ever know

STARK :
Well that much is true. And the fact that that British papers call Solvieg is a traitor to the human race isn't an issue?

 JANE FOSTER 
I've known Eric for years and he built a life on sound science and being a human being without selling any weapons

<Darcy and Foster high five each other and Darcy climbs down from the table>

STARK :
You should meet Banner, he's high on the morals as well. I'd try and keep the irritant levels to a minimum with him though.


<Stark leaves, with a wink at Darcy. She grimaces back at him>


JANE FOSTER
<to Pepper>
I've got to ask - what do you see in that guy?

PEPPER POTS
He's obviously not your type

 JANE FOSTER 
Obviously

PEPPER POTS
Well, he's smart - but not that smart. There is one technical challenge he'll never work out.

DARCY LEWIS
Is it taking a crap in the Iron Man suit?

PEPPER POTS
No he got around that early on
<face wrinkles>
no the one thing he'll never solve is the thing that looks back at him from the bathroom mirror every day.

 JANE FOSTER:
So he's your technical challenge?  

PEPPER POTS
No. I'm CEO of Stark. These days he's just my hobby.

DARCY LEWIS
"Behind every great man there is a great women"

PEPPER POTS
We are not behind them, its just that they are standing in front of us

 JANE FOSTER
I could relate to that better if mine wasn't immortal

 JANE FOSTER
And somehow Tony Stark isn't doing it for you either Darcy

LEWIS :
No

<Darcy looks warily at Pepper>

DARCY LEWIS 
well you know that story about my dad being a mechanic in Oakland 

<the other two stop and loop at Darcy. who takes a huge glug of wine>

DARCY LEWIS 
Well.. yeah.. ok.. errr .. promise you won't freak out

FOSTER
<she knows just has not faced up to it>
Go on..

DARCY LEWIS 
Oh what the hell
<looks directly at Jane>
Tony Stark is my dad




 I could have written a review of THOR : THE DARK WORLD but instead I though I'd post this to show my appreciation of a really fun movie
it was inspired by http://www.themarysue.com/jane-foster-dexters-laboratory/